(January 17, 2024)
On January 17th, the State Council Press Office held a press conference. Kang Yi, director of the National Bureau of Statistics, and Wang Guanhua, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics, introduced the national economic operation in 2023 and answered questions from reporters. The transcript of the press conference is as follows:
Shou Xiaoli, deputy director and spokesperson of the State Council Information Office.：
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen! Welcome to the press conference of the State Council Information Office. Today, we released economic data routinely. We invited Mr. Kang Yi, director of the National Bureau of Statistics, and Ms. Wang Guanhua, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics, to introduce the national economy in 2023 and answer your concerns.
Next, let’s first invite Mr. Kang Yi to make an introduction.
Kang Yi, Director of National Bureau of Statistics.：
Thank you, host. Good morning, media friends. First of all, let me introduce the national economy in 2023.
In 2023, the national economy rebounded and high-quality development was solidly promoted. In 2023, in the face of the complicated and severe international environment and arduous and arduous tasks of domestic reform, development and stability, under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with the Supreme Leader as the core, all localities and departments conscientiously implemented the decision-making arrangements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, adhered to the general tone of striving for progress while maintaining stability, comprehensively implemented the new development concept, accelerated the construction of a new development pattern, comprehensively deepened reform and opening up, and intensified macro-control. Efforts were made to expand domestic demand, optimize the structure, boost confidence and prevent risks. China’s economy rebounded, supply demand improved steadily, transformation and upgrading were actively promoted, employment prices were generally stable, people’s livelihood security was strong and effective, and high-quality development was solidly promoted. The main expected goals were successfully achieved. (For details of the national economy in 2023, please refer to the link https.://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202401/t20240117_1946624.html）
Next, I will give you a briefing on the improvement of the unemployment rate survey by age groups in cities and towns.
The National Bureau of Statistics attaches great importance to the improvement of the labor force survey system, organizes relevant departments and experts to conduct in-depth discussions, study international standards and experiences and practices of various countries, and conducts on-the-spot investigations to carefully sort out the statistical methods and caliber of studying the unemployment rate. In order to reflect the employment and unemployment situation of youth more accurately and completely, from the point of view of fully considering the national conditions, the unemployment rate statistics of age groups have been adjusted in two aspects. One is to publish the unemployment rate of the labor force aged 16-24, which does not include students at school; The second is to increase the unemployment rate of the 25-29-year-old labor force excluding students at school. There are two main considerations:
On the one hand, it is to monitor youth employment and unemployment more accurately. In 2023, on average, among the urban population aged 16-24 in China, students accounted for more than 60%, nearly 62 million; Non-school students account for more than 30%, about 34 million people. According to China’s national conditions, the main task of school students is to study, not to work part-time. If school students are included in the age group, young people who are looking for part-time jobs at school and those who are looking for jobs after graduation will be mixed together, which cannot accurately reflect the employment and unemployment situation of young people who really need to work in society. Calculating the unemployment rate of different age groups excluding students in school is conducive to more accurately reflecting the employment and unemployment situation of young people entering the society, giving them more accurate employment services and formulating more effective and targeted employment policies.
On the other hand, it is to reflect the whole picture of employment and unemployment of young people in the process of graduation from school to stable work. The number of years of education of young people in China has been increasing. At present, the gross enrollment rate of higher education in China is nearly 60%. Most young people just graduated at the age of 24 and are still in the period of choosing jobs. Some of them are unemployed or unstable. By the age of 29, most of them have passed the period of choosing jobs, and the employment situation tends to be stable. All walks of life are very concerned about the employment situation of young people when they just leave school, and they are also very concerned about their employment situation for a period of time after graduation. Therefore, our bureau increased the calculation and released the unemployment rate of the 25-29-year-old labor force.
Regarding the release method, in the future, our bureau will release the unemployment rate of the labor force aged 16-24, 25-29 and 30-59 excluding students in the data release database of the National Bureau of Statistics on a monthly basis. You can query the data in the data release database.
I’ll stop here and answer your questions.
Beijing Youth Daily reporter：
I want to ask about the general situation. In 2023, faced with multiple challenges such as weak world economic recovery, frequent domestic natural disasters and arduous tasks of reform, development and stability, what is the overall performance of China’s economic operation? From last year’s point of view, have our main objectives and tasks been better achieved throughout the year? Thank you.
Kang Yi：
Thank you for your question. In the previous introduction, the annual performance of China’s economy was introduced in detail. On the whole, our main expected goals have been successfully achieved. It can be said that a transcript with good color and sufficient weight was handed over. For the economic performance of the past year, it can be summarized as a rebound, full of color, bright performance, and it is not easy.
First, the recovery is good. From the perspective of economic growth, China’s GDP exceeded 126 trillion yuan in 2023, and the growth rate was 2.2 percentage points faster than that in 2022. Quarterly, it shows a trend of low, high and stable, and the positive trend is further consolidated. According to the comparable price calculation, the economic growth in 2023 will exceed 6 trillion yuan, which is equivalent to the total economic output of a medium-sized country in one year. The per capita GDP increased steadily, reaching 89,358 yuan in 2023, an increase of 5.4% over the previous year. From the perspective of employment, the employment situation has generally improved. The average unemployment rate in urban surveys has dropped by 0.4 percentage points over the previous year, especially for migrant workers. From the perspective of prices, prices generally maintained a moderate increase, with the annual CPI rising by 0.2% and the core CPI rising by 0.7%. From the perspective of international payments, the export of goods increased by 0.6% in the whole year, and the foreign exchange reserves at the end of the year exceeded 3.2 trillion US dollars.
Second, the color is full. Last year, we coordinated the effective improvement of quality and the reasonable growth of quantity. The whole country closely focused on the primary task of high-quality development, and promoted the economy to continuously win advantages in structural adjustment and transformation and upgrading, so that high-quality development was more complete. The innovation-driven development strategy was implemented in depth, and the investment in innovation increased steadily. According to preliminary calculation, in 2023, the investment in research and experimental development of the whole society reached 3,327.82 billion yuan, and the intensity of R&D investment reached 2.64%, up by 0.08 percentage point over the previous year. In this year, some major scientific and technological innovations were reported frequently, especially the high-end, intelligent and green development of manufacturing industry was solidly promoted. With the optimization and upgrading of economic structure, the role of service industry and consumption as the main engines of economic growth has become more prominent. In 2023, the added value of service industry accounted for 54.6% of GDP, an increase of 1.2 percentage points over the previous year; The contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth reached 82.5%, an increase of 43.1 percentage points over the previous year. The foundation for safe development was further consolidated, and the annual grain output increased by 1.3% over the previous year; The output of raw coal, crude oil and natural gas in industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 2.9%, 2% and 5.8% respectively. We have kept the bottom line of no systemic risks, ensured economic and financial security, and ensured more effective people’s livelihood. The per capita disposable income of the national residents actually increased by 6.1% over the previous year.
Third, the performance is bright. To observe the economic performance of China, we should not only compare it vertically with ourselves, but also compare it horizontally with other countries. In 2023, China’s economic growth rate of 5.2% is not only higher than the estimated global growth rate of about 3%, but also among the best in the world’s major economies. The contribution rate of China’s economy to world economic growth in 2023 is expected to exceed 30%, which is the biggest engine of world economic growth. At the same time, China’s exports have also achieved a small increase, and its share in the global market has remained stable. Another point is that the overall price increase is moderate, which is in sharp contrast with the high global inflation and the difficult balance between anti-inflation and steady growth in some countries.
Fourth, it is not easy. It’s hard to know what’s going on until it’s gone through. In 2023, the world economy is in a downturn, the international pattern is complicated and evolving, geopolitical conflicts are frequent, and the complexity, severity and uncertainty of the external environment are rising. There are many periodic and structural contradictions in China, and natural disasters occur frequently. In this complicated situation, it is even more commendable to achieve such development achievements. These achievements are the result of the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with the Supreme Leader as the core, the scientific guidance of Socialism with Chinese characteristics Thought in the new era of the Supreme Leader, and the unremitting efforts of the people of the whole country. The achievements deserve full recognition and need to be cherished.
Looking forward to 2024, we should also see that the current external environment is still complicated and severe, with insufficient domestic effective demand, overcapacity in some industries, weak social expectations and many hidden risks. To promote China’s economic recovery, we must overcome some difficulties and challenges. We should effectively deal with these difficulties and solve these problems in accordance with the decision-making arrangements of the Central Economic Work Conference, and constantly promote China’s economic stability and prosperity. Thank you.
Global Times reporter：
I would like to ask the publisher to introduce the contribution rate and pulling point of the three major demands to economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2023 and the whole year. Are there any new changes? In addition, I would like to know what the development trend of domestic and international double circulation pattern was in the past year. Thank you.
Kang Yi：
Thank you for your question. You are concerned about two aspects, one is the three major demand situations, and the other is the two-cycle situation. First of all, answer your first question, the contribution and pull of the three major needs. In 2023, final consumption expenditure, total capital formation and net exports of goods and services will drive economic growth by 4.3, 1.5 and -0.6 percentage points respectively, and their contribution rates to economic growth will be 82.5%, 28.9% and -11.4% respectively. In the fourth quarter, final consumption expenditure, total capital formation and net exports of goods and services boosted economic growth by 4.2, 1.2 and -0.2 percentage points respectively, and their contribution rates to economic growth were 80%, 23.1% and -3.1% respectively.
The second question is the progress of domestic and international double circulation. It should be said that new progress has been made in building a new development pattern in 2023, which has three characteristics:
First, the main role of the domestic macro-cycle is increasing. Based on the strategic basis of expanding domestic demand and releasing the market potential of strong domestic demand, the driving role of domestic circulation in economic development is obviously enhanced. In 2023, China’s total retail sales of consumer goods reached 47.1 trillion yuan, the scale of fixed assets investment reached 50.3 trillion yuan, and the contribution rate of domestic demand to economic growth reached 111.4%, an increase of 25.3 percentage points over the previous year. We are making great efforts to build a unified national market, get through the blocking points of the domestic big cycle, and smooth all links of production, distribution, circulation and consumption. The flow of factors tends to be active, and the connection between production and sales is gradually improving. In the fourth quarter, the utilization rate of industrial capacity was 75.9%, up 0.2 percentage points year-on-year; The product sales rate of industrial enterprises above designated size has remained stable at the level of over 97%. The annual commercial freight volume increased by 8.2% year-on-year, and the commercial passenger traffic increased by 66.5%.
Second, the quality and level of international circulation have been further improved. Faced with the adverse effects of shrinking external demand, China has made efforts to promote the stable scale and excellent structure of foreign trade, and its exports have achieved positive growth. The horizontal ratio is better than that of major export-oriented economies, and the share of the international market remains generally stable. In 2023, the export volume of goods increased by 0.6% over the previous year, and the proportion of general trade and private enterprises’ import and export increased. At the same time, China is also actively expanding international economic and trade cooperation and building the "Belt and Road" with high quality. It has become a major trading partner of more than 140 countries and regions, and the scope of international circulation is broader and deeper. In 2023, China’s total import and export volume to countries building the "Belt and Road" increased by 2.8% over the previous year.
Third, domestic and international circulation promote each other. The advantages of our super-large-scale market have emerged, and the expansion of domestic demand has boosted imports. In 2023, the import of agricultural products increased by 5%, consumer goods increased by 1.2% and energy products increased by 27.2%. The advantages of a sound industrial system and stable production capacity have also been brought into play. The promotion of stability and quality by exports has brought about the development of related domestic industries and helped the overall improvement of the economy. In 2023, China’s exports of goods reached a record high. Among them, the export of mechanical and electrical products increased by 2.9% over the previous year. The export value of the "new three products" represented by electric manned vehicles, solar cells and lithium-ion batteries also exceeded the trillion-dollar mark for the first time, with an increase of 29.9%.
While we see the positive progress of domestic and international double circulation, we also see that there are still some blocking points in the domestic big circulation, the world economy continues to be in a downturn, the global industrial chain supply chain is deeply adjusted, and the international circulation is also facing some difficulties and challenges. In the next step, we should make overall plans to expand domestic demand and deepen supply-side structural reform, make overall plans for high-quality development and high-level security, make overall plans to promote deep-level reform and high-level opening-up, open up key blocking points that restrict the economic cycle, and promote the mutual promotion of domestic and international double cycles. Thank you.
American international market news agency reporter：
According to recent data, the CPI in China showed negative growth for the third consecutive month in December. What is the prospect of CPI? Will the government take measures to deal with the low prices?
Kang Yi：
Thank you for your question. The price issue is highly concerned by all sectors of society. From the overall situation in 2023, China’s prices generally maintained a moderate upward trend, and the annual CPI rose by 0.2%. The reporter mentioned that CPI has been negative for three consecutive months, and we should look at both the overall data and the structural data. The year-on-year decline of CPI in recent months is mainly structural and phased.
First, the decline in CPI is structural. The recent decline in prices is mainly due to the fall in food and energy prices. If the influence of food and energy prices is deducted, the core CPI remains stable, which shows that the price decline is not universal and comprehensive, but local and structural. The decline in food and energy prices is not entirely a change in the relationship between supply and demand in the market. From the perspective of 2022 and 2023, it is mainly affected by some non-economic and unconventional factors. From the perspective of energy prices, the price of fuel now has a large weight in the basket of China’s CPI. In December 2023, the energy price decreased by 0.5% year-on-year, while it increased by 5.2% year-on-year. As we all know, energy prices were mainly affected by the Russian-Ukrainian war. In 2022, energy prices rose sharply, and in 2023, they fell back, with one positive and one negative, and the year-on-year downward pull was relatively large. From the perspective of food prices, it decreased by 3.7% year-on-year in December 2023 and increased by 4.8% in the same period of last year, that is, in December 2022. In December 2022, mainly affected by the epidemic situation, the logistics was not smooth, and the prices of various foods were rising. After the normal operation was resumed, the supply was sufficient, and the food prices naturally fell on the basis of the high base of the previous year.
Second, the decline of CPI is phased. In particular, China’s economic recovery is improving, residents’ income is growing steadily, domestic total demand is expected to expand, and the price recovery of goods and services is based and conditional. The recent Spring Festival holiday is approaching, and the demand for food consumption is also increasing. People are more active in eating out, visiting relatives and friends, traveling and other services, which will boost the seasonal rebound of CPI. From the ring comparison, the CPI rose by 0.1% in December 2023; In the first ten days of January, 2024, according to the monitoring situation, some food prices maintained a steady and slightly rising trend. In addition, in addition to supply and demand, prices are also affected by expectations. Judging from the recent situation, the expected confidence of both enterprises and residents has recovered marginally. In December, the expected index of manufacturing production and business activities reached 55.9%, and the expected index of non-manufacturing business activities reached 60.3%, both of which were in a high boom zone. In the fourth quarter, the prosperity index of enterprises above designated size was 109 points, an increase of 0.4 points over the previous quarter. In December, the consumer confidence index rose by 0.6 points from the previous month.
Third, the low price operation also reflects the problem of insufficient effective demand to some extent. Insufficient effective demand is a phased phenomenon in which our country’s economy is gradually moving towards normal state after three years of epidemic impact. In the short term, insufficient demand will lead to a downward trend in prices. The central government attaches great importance to the problem of insufficient demand. When planning economic work in 2024, the Central Economic Work Conference clearly emphasized that efforts should be made to expand domestic demand and promote consumption to shift from post-epidemic recovery to sustained expansion, and clearly pointed out a series of specific work directions. With the promulgation and implementation of these policies at the Central Economic Work Conference, the problem of insufficient effective demand will be gradually alleviated, and consumer prices are expected to stabilize and rebound. We expect that prices will rise moderately in 2024. Thank you.
CCTV reporter from Central Radio and Television General Station：
High-quality development is the primary task of building a socialist modern country in an all-round way. What is the progress of high-quality economic development in China at present? What measures will be taken in the future to continuously promote high-quality economic development? Thank you.
Kang Yi：
Thank you for your question. High-quality development is the last word in the new era and the primary task of building a socialist modern country in an all-round way. In 2023, all regions and departments have made great efforts to stabilize economic operation, and they have not slackened their efforts in promoting high-quality development. China’s economy has achieved effective improvement in quality and reasonable growth in quantity, and the road to high-quality development has become more firm and powerful. To sum up, it can be summarized by five "further".
First, important progress has been made in the construction of a modern industrial system, and the transformation of development kinetic energy has been further accelerated. Modern industrial system is an important foundation for high-quality development. All localities and departments insist on scientific and technological innovation to lead the construction of modern industrial system, and solidly promote the high-end, intelligent and green transformation of manufacturing industry. The new kinetic energy and advantages of China’s economic development have been growing, and new progress has been made in the construction of modern industrial system.
Second, the reform and opening up have been deepened and the vitality of development has been further released. In 2023, China made every effort to promote the construction of a unified national market, optimize the development environment of the private economy, and continue to create a market-oriented, rule-of-law and international first-class business environment, effectively enhancing the dynamic vitality of economic development. By the end of September 2023, there were 181 million registered business entities in China, including 122 million individual industrial and commercial households. Accelerate high-level opening-up, actively carry out international economic and trade exchanges and cooperation, build the Belt and Road with high quality, and successfully host China International Import Expo(CIIE), Service Trade Fair and Canton Fair. China’s import and export volume to countries that jointly built the Belt and Road increased by 2.8%. China International Import Expo(CIIE)’s annual intentional turnover increased by 6.7% compared with the previous session.
Third, the green and low-carbon transformation has continued to deepen and the development mode has further changed. China insists on promoting economic development in the process of green and low-carbon transformation, and the green production mode and lifestyle have been accelerated. Actively build a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system and continuously optimize the energy consumption structure. According to preliminary accounting, the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption in total energy consumption in 2023 will increase by 0.2 percentage points over the previous year. By the end of 2023, the installed capacity of renewable energy in China will account for more than half of the total installed capacity, historically exceeding that of thermal power. The output of green and low-carbon products is also growing rapidly. In 2023, new energy vehicles increased by 30.3% over the previous year, and the production and sales volume were the first in the world; The export volume of electric manned vehicles increased by 67.1%.
Fourth, people’s livelihood security is strong and effective, and people’s lives are further improved. Improving people’s livelihood and well-being is the fundamental purpose of development. In 2023, the income of urban and rural residents grew steadily, the level of public services and social security continued to improve, and the short-board field of people’s livelihood was gradually strengthened, further polishing the background of people’s livelihood with high-quality development. The per capita disposable income of residents increased by 6.1%, among which, the transfer income from government social relief and subsidies, policy life subsidies and cash policy subsidies for benefiting farmers increased by 10.3%. The investment in people’s livelihood has been increasing. The investment in the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water has increased by 23%, and the investment in agriculture has increased by 9.3%, all of which are obviously faster than the total investment.
Fifth, the ability to ensure food and energy security has been improved, and the foundation for safe development has been further consolidated. In 2023, China ensured security in its development and achieved good development on the basis of security.
Of course, at the same time, we must also see that China is still in the key period of transforming the development mode, optimizing the economic structure and transforming the growth momentum. To further promote high-quality development, we still need to overcome many difficulties and challenges. It is necessary to thoroughly implement the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference, take high-quality development as the last word in the new era, make overall plans for high-quality development and high-level security, continuously improve the economic quality and reasonably increase the quantity, and turn the grand blueprint of Chinese modernization into a beautiful reality step by step. Thank you.
Reuters reporter：
I am also concerned about the structural problems. I would like to ask, how can we realize the transformation of old and new kinetic energy in China’s economic development? It is also seen in the report that new energy vehicles and solar cells are growing rapidly, but in the process of vigorously developing advanced manufacturing industries, how can we prevent possible overcapacity problems? In addition, in the case of relatively insufficient domestic demand, will the rapid expansion of these industries bring downward pressure on prices and possible international trade frictions? Thank you.
Wang Guanhua：
Thank you for your question. I want to answer your question mainly from two aspects:
First of all, the first point is about the conversion of old and new kinetic energy. High-quality development is the development of implementing the new development concept, and "innovation" ranks first among the five development concepts. Adhering to the drive of innovation and promoting the transformation of development kinetic energy has always been an important task for high-quality development. Just now, Director Kang Yi gave a detailed introduction to the achievements of China’s high-quality development last year, especially the innovation-driven development. Here I would like to add a few more data. In 2023, the added value of China’s equipment manufacturing industry above designated size increased by 6.8% over the previous year, which played a key role in promoting the stable recovery of industry; In 2023, the report released by the World Intellectual Property Organization showed that China ranked 12th in the global innovation index, and the number of the top 100 scientific and technological innovation clusters in the world jumped to the first place in the world for the first time. It can be said that new kinetic energy has become an important engine to lead high-quality development.
Secondly, last year, China’s economy rebounded, especially the market demand and domestic demand recovered well. Everyone should have personal feelings about this, especially with the increasing demand-driven role, China’s supply and demand convergence and economic cycle are also improving. Give you a few data for reference. In the fourth quarter, the product sales rate of industrial enterprises above designated size in China remained above 97%, which rose to 98.4% in December; Judging from the capacity utilization rate that reflects the capacity utilization situation, in the four quarters of 2023, the industrial capacity utilization rate was 74.3%, 74.5%, 75.6% and 75.9% respectively, showing a trend of quarterly recovery. This reflects that with the improvement of market demand, China’s capacity utilization is gradually recovering. At the beginning of this year, we also noticed that ice and snow tourism and ice and snow sports can be said to be "out of the circle", which not only conforms to the general trend of upgrading the consumption structure of residents, but also shows the potential of domestic demand in China. We are full of expectations and confidence in the recovery of the consumer market this year.
Generally speaking, China is still in a critical period of economic recovery and transformation and upgrading. In the next step, in accordance with the decision-making arrangements of the Central Economic Work Conference, we should persist in striving for progress through stability, promoting stability through progress, establishing first and then breaking, continuously consolidate and strengthen the economic recovery to a good trend, and promote the effective improvement of quality and reasonable growth of quantity of the economy. Thank you.
Singapore Straits Times reporter：
What I want to ask is, last year we saw the impact of real estate on the whole macro-economy. Can it remain stable this year? Thank you.
Kang Yi：
Thank you for your question. Real estate has always attracted much attention. At the press conference last year, some reporters also mentioned this issue. What is the trend and what is the next step? Everyone is very concerned. According to our monitoring, after more than 20 years of development, the real estate market is in the process of adjustment and transformation. Under such a big background, all regions and departments are adapting to the new situation that the relationship between supply and demand in the real estate market has undergone major changes and adjusting and optimizing real estate policies in a timely manner. Judging from the current situation, there have been some positive changes in the real estate market, mainly in two aspects:
First, the decline in real estate investment, sales and other indicators narrowed. In 2023, the investment in real estate development decreased by 9.6% compared with the previous year, and the decline rate narrowed by 0.4 percentage points compared with the previous year. The funds in place of real estate development enterprises decreased by 13.6%, which was 12.3 percentage points narrower than the previous year. The decline in commercial housing sales has narrowed significantly. In 2023, the sales area of commercial housing in China decreased by 8.5% compared with the previous year, and the sales volume decreased by 6.5%, both of which were declining, but the declines were significantly narrowed by 15.8 and 20.2 percentage points respectively. Since August, the online signing and filing volume of newly-built commercial housing has rebounded as a whole, rising by 20.2 percentage points in December compared with August. From the monitoring of 70 large and medium-sized cities, the transaction volume of new and second-hand houses is rising moderately. Second, the completed area of real estate increased rapidly. The work of "guaranteeing the delivery of the building" is progressing steadily, and the effect continues to appear. In 2023, the completed housing area of real estate development enterprises increased by 17% over the previous year.
What do you think of the future trend of the real estate market? The long-term healthy development of China’s real estate market has a good foundation for several reasons:
First, there is still a lot of room to improve the quantity and quality of urbanization. Just now, it was reported that the urbanization rate in 2023 is 66.16%, which is still room for improvement compared with the level of more than 80% in developed economies. The urbanization of China is still in the process of sustainable development. In the past five years, the urbanization rate has increased by 0.93 percentage points annually. Every year, more than 10 million rural residents enter cities and towns, and the scale of new citizens is relatively large, which will also bring a large number of new housing needs. Although the per capita housing area in our country is not small, the functions and structures of many houses are not reasonable, and many people need improved housing urgently, which will also form an important driving force of the real estate market, including the 70 large and medium-sized cities currently monitored. The demand for improved housing is very obvious, which is manifested in the fact that the transaction volume of second-hand houses in 70 large and medium-sized cities has exceeded the transaction volume of new houses.
Second, there is great potential for building a new model of real estate development. The new model of real estate development is being actively constructed, which is the fundamental solution to solve the real estate development problems and promote the healthy development of real estate. Among them, the construction of affordable housing, the construction of public infrastructure for both ordinary and emergency use, and the reconstruction of villages in cities are all advancing rapidly. With the vigorous and orderly progress of these projects, it will help solve the urgent problems of people in housing and housing, and at the same time, it will also drive real estate-related investment and consumption and promote the healthy development of the real estate market. Thank you.
China Daily reporter：
Recently, many international organizations and commercial organizations have raised their expectations for China’s economic growth, believing that China is still the biggest engine of global economic growth. What do you think of this? What is the economic trend of China in 2024? Thank you.
Kang Yi：
Thank you for your question. How to look at the economic trend of China in 2024 is also a matter of great concern to everyone. 2024 is the 75th anniversary of the founding of People’s Republic of China (PRC), and it is a crucial year for us to implement the 14th Five-Year Plan. To predict the economic trend of this year, we should first see that we will face some challenges and difficulties, but more are favorable conditions and advantages. Taken together, the opportunities we face are greater than the challenges, and the favorable conditions are stronger than the unfavorable factors. The basic trend of China’s long-term economic improvement has not changed, and the factors supporting the high-quality development of China’s economy are accumulating and increasing. Therefore, we predict that China’s economy will continue to pick up in 2024. Specifically, there are five advantages.
First, the economic growth is "good". In the four quarters of 2023, the gross domestic product (GDP) is growing positively year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, and the economic scale is also expanding quarter by quarter, which is also a good momentum of recovery. In addition to the statistical accounting of economic aggregates, the National Bureau of Statistics has also done a job of monitoring and comparing some physical quantity indicators. Judging from the physical quantity indicators, the absolute quantities of most physical quantity indicators, such as electricity consumption, output of major industrial products, investment, import and export, have greatly exceeded the level in 2019. Some physical indicators are lower than the pre-epidemic level in 2019, mainly related to the problems mentioned by reporters just now, and are the output indicators of products related to real estate. This also reflects that our economic operation is improving as a whole. International organizations have raised their forecasts for China’s economic growth by 0.4 percentage points, the International Monetary Fund by 0.1 percentage points and the OECD by 0.1 percentage points, which shows that the international community is optimistic about China’s economic development prospects in 2024.
Second, economic development is "resilient". Our country has a solid industrial base, and is the only country with all industrial categories in the United Nations industrial classification. Its supporting capacity and integration advantages are outstanding. The added value of our manufacturing industry accounts for nearly one-third of the world’s total, and our goods exports account for one-seventh of the world’s total. At the same time, China’s transportation, communication and other infrastructure networks are improving day by day, short-board areas such as education and medical care are constantly strengthening, and the supply quality of talents, funds and other factors is improving significantly. Food and energy security, industrial chain supply chain and other key areas of support capacity building have also achieved practical results, which have enhanced the resilience and room for manoeuvre of our country’s economic development, and are also the basis for the economy to be stable and far-reaching
Third, high-quality development is "full of vitality". New industries are growing rapidly, new formats are improving continuously, new models are being cultivated rapidly, the economic structure is being continuously optimized, and the potential of economic development is expected to be further stimulated. In 2023, the added value of service industry accounted for 54.6% of GDP, and contributed more than 60% to economic growth. The investment in technological transformation of manufacturing industry increased by 3.8%, and the investment in high-tech industries increased by 10.3%, which was faster than the growth rate of all fixed assets investment. More importantly, China continues to promote the formation of a new situation of innovation-driven development, and China’s economy is constantly developing and growing while accelerating the cultivation of new quality productivity.
Fourth, the reform and opening up has "many dividends". China adheres to and improves the basic socialist economic system, adheres to the "two unswerving", speeds up the construction of a unified national market, promotes the construction of a high-standard market system, optimizes the business environment, and creates a fairer competitive environment for all kinds of enterprises, which will continuously stimulate the enthusiasm and creativity of business entities. Including foreign-invested enterprises, continue to be optimistic about China. From January to November 2023, the number of newly established foreign-funded enterprises increased by 36.2% year-on-year, and China’s open dividend continued to be released.
Fifth, the macro policy is "wide in space". The policy effects of issuing additional government bonds, reducing taxes and fees, and lowering the RRR and interest rates introduced in 2023 will continue to be released this year. This year, some new measures will be taken to optimize the reserves, and these new incremental measures and stock policies will be superimposed to protect the stable operation of the economy. At present, China’s government debt level and inflation rate are low, the policy toolbox is constantly enriched, and there is a lot of room for manoeuvre in fiscal, monetary and other policies. There are conditions and space for strengthening the implementation of macro policies.
Although there will be some difficulties and challenges in promoting the sustained economic recovery in 2024, the Central Economic Work Conference held some time ago made a careful analysis of the difficulties and challenges and put forward specific countermeasures. It is necessary to fully implement the arrangements of the Central Economic Work Conference and constantly turn development advantages into development potential. This year, China’s economy will certainly be able to face difficulties and forge ahead, and achieve effective improvement in quality and reasonable growth in quantity. Thank you.
The Paper reporter：
In 2023, the total retail sales of social consumer goods showed a trend of gradual recovery, but at present, China still faces the problem of insufficient demand. Excuse me, how do you view the performance of the consumer market in 2023? What is the prediction for 2024? Can the recovery of consumption continue? Thank you.
Kang Yi：
Thank you for your question. The first question is the performance of the consumer market in 2023, and the second question is the prediction of the consumer market in 2024.
Let me introduce the performance of the consumer market in 2023. Generally speaking, the consumer market will recover in 2023. In the three years since the epidemic, the consumer market has been hit hard, and many contact and aggregate consumption have been restrained. With the smooth transition of epidemic prevention and control, the economy and society have fully resumed normal operation, and consumption has shown a good recovery trend with frequent hot spots. Consumption has become an important force driving economic recovery in 2023. There are several characteristics: First, the consumption scale has reached a new high. In 2023, the total retail sales of social consumer goods exceeded 47 trillion yuan, reaching a record high. Second, consumption has become the main driving force of economic growth again. In 2023, the final consumption expenditure will drive economic growth by 4.3 percentage points, up by 3.1 percentage points over the previous year; The contribution rate to economic growth was 82.5%, an increase of 43.1 percentage points, and the basic role of consumption was more significant. Third, service consumption recovered quickly. The rapid recovery of service consumption is also a highlight of consumption recovery in 2023. The retail sales of services increased by 20% over the previous year, which was 14.2 percentage points faster than the retail sales of goods. The per capita service consumption expenditure of residents increased by 14.4%, accounting for 45.2% of the per capita consumption expenditure of residents, up by 2 percentage points over the previous year. Fourth, the structural upgrading of household consumption continues. Especially the improvement of people’s living standards and the steady growth of income, our country is currently in a period of rapid upgrading of residents’ consumption structure.
We judge that there are many favorable conditions to support the sustained recovery of consumption in the next stage, and consumption will still maintain a good growth. Supporting factors: First, the consumption potential is still huge. With a population of more than 1.4 billion, the advantages of super-large-scale market are still obvious, coupled with the integrated development of urban and rural areas, the advancement of urbanization and the continuous upgrading of consumption structure, which provide a broad space for consumption growth. In particular, the consumption potential of medical care and health is expected to be further released. Second, the consumption base has been continuously consolidated. Income is the premise and foundation of consumption. With the sustained economic recovery and the overall improvement of employment situation, residents’ income is expected to maintain steady growth, which will strongly support the improvement of residents’ consumption power. Third, consumption highlights are constantly emerging. Digital consumption, green consumption, healthy consumption, cultural tourism consumption, etc. are all developing rapidly, and some consumption hotspots such as smart home, entertainment tourism, sports events, and domestic products are also heating up, which constantly adds momentum to the upgrading and expansion of the consumer market. The fourth is to promote the continuous development of consumption policies. All localities and departments insist on giving priority to restoring and expanding consumption, and have successively issued a series of policies to promote consumption, focusing on stabilizing and expanding traditional consumption, cultivating and expanding new consumption, and continuously optimizing the consumption environment, which will continue to play a positive role in stabilizing the consumer market and promoting consumption recovery. Therefore, we are optimistic about the consumption trend in 2024. Thank you.
21st century business herald reporter：
I want to pay attention to the fifth national economic census. The fifth national economic census was officially launched on January 1 this year. What is the current progress? What are the innovations of this census compared with the previous four? How to ensure the quality of census data? Thank you.
Kang Yi：
Thank you for your question. The fifth national economic census is an important survey of national conditions and national strength in the new era and new journey, which carries the important task of finding out the economic background of our country and reflecting the progress of high-quality development. At present, the unit inventory work has been successfully completed, and it has entered the stage of census registration since January 1, 2024. Now the census registration work is being carried out in an orderly manner. Especially since the beginning of the new year, on January 3rd, Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang made a survey to guide the on-site registration of the census, visited the grassroots enumerators and staff, and put forward clear requirements for doing a good job in census registration. At present, the census work is progressing in an orderly manner. January-April this year is the official registration stage of the census, which is also the most important stage of the census work and the most important stage for obtaining high-quality census data.
The innovation of the fifth national economic census this year is mainly to focus on the development of high-quality services, enrich the survey content and innovate the survey methods. The fifth national economic census will comprehensively investigate the development scale, layout and benefits of China’s secondary and tertiary industries. On this basis, we should expand the field of statistical investigation, enrich the content of statistical investigation, improve the statistical investigation system and promote the construction of a high-quality statistical monitoring system. There are three main aspects of innovation:
First, the input-output survey was carried out as a whole for the first time. Originally, the input-output survey and the economic census were conducted separately, and the fifth national economic census integrated these two separate surveys, which helped to promote the better connection between economic aggregate data and structural data.
The second is to further improve the "three new" economic statistics. Add the content of digital economy survey, better reflect the digitalization process of China’s economic development, systematically promote the platform economy survey, and lay the foundation for finding out the development of brand-new industries, new formats and new development models.
Third, there is innovation in the means and methods of investigation. Continue to deepen the application of departmental administrative records, add self-reporting methods to collect census data, develop mobile applet to collect data for the first time, and establish an input-output statistical electronic ledger for the first time to improve the efficiency of census work.
The quality of census data is the most fundamental criterion to measure the success or failure of census. In the census work, we attach great importance to the quality of census data and take a series of measures to ensure the quality of census data.
The first is to standardize data collection. In this economic census, census takers collect data from households, census subjects fill in their own reports and departments submit data, so as to strictly control human interference in data collection and ensure the quality of census source data.
The second is to carry out data audit and inspection in various ways. We carried out the census data with the report and review, comprehensively used big data means and various analysis methods to carry out audit and verification, and organized on-site verification and inspection in time. After the census registration, the general office will also organize a spot check on the quality afterwards to comprehensively test the quality of the census registration data.
The third is to resolutely investigate and deal with census fraud. Conduct a census in accordance with the law, resolutely resist all kinds of interference with census data, strengthen statistical law enforcement inspection, incorporate the fifth national economic census into statistical inspectors, and "strike out" violations of laws and regulations in the census, and seriously pursue accountability according to the law and regulations.
At present, there are about 2.1 million census "two members" (census investigators and census counselors) visiting the streets, going deep into enterprises and merchants to collect data, and the census data are being reported in an orderly manner.
Here, I would also like to thank all the respondents for their support and the hard work of the census workers. I also hope that the media friends will continue to support the census, publicize the census and supervise the census. Let us work together to hand over a satisfactory answer sheet for the fifth national economic census with high quality. Thank you.
Cover journalist：
Recently, some media reported that there was a difference of 294.6 billion kWh between electricity consumption and power generation in the first 11 months of 2023. Why is there such a data difference? Thank you.
Kang Yi：
Thank you for your question. We are concerned that some media discuss the difference between electricity consumption and electricity generation. Electricity generation and electricity consumption are two important indicators reflecting power operation. Just now, this reporter friend mentioned the difference between the data of these two statistical indicators from January to November, mainly because the caliber of the two indicators is different. One of these two indicators is the electricity consumption of the whole society, and the other is the power generation of industrial enterprises above designated size. In addition to industrial enterprises above designated size, with the rapid development of solar power generation and wind power generation, some industrial enterprises below designated size, various houses and merchants also generate electricity, but this part of the power generation is not within the industrial power generation above designated size from January to November.
For your better understanding, I would like to explain these two indicators. Their survey objects, statistical caliber and coverage are different. First, the statistical caliber is different. The electricity consumption of the whole society is counted from the users of electricity, and the industrial power generation above designated size is counted from the suppliers. The scope of these two statistics is different. Specifically, the electricity consumption of the whole society is the full-scale electricity consumption, that is, the total electricity consumption, including the electricity consumption of enterprises and residents, as well as the self-produced and self-used electricity and line loss of power plants. The statistical caliber of industrial power generation above designated size refers to the power generation of industrial enterprises above designated size. The current standard of industrial enterprises above designated size is industrial enterprises with annual main business income of 20 million yuan or more, so it does not include the power generation of small industrial power generation enterprises below designated size, and it is not a full caliber power generation.
Second, it is affected by some distributed power generation. In recent years, distributed solar energy and wind power generation, which are widely dispersed and small in size, have developed rapidly, and they are mostly distributed in various types of residential buildings, merchants and some industrial enterprises below the scale. Because the power generation enterprises are small in scale, this part of the power generation does not meet the industrial statistical standards above the scale, and some of them are merchants and residential buildings, so it is not counted in the monthly industrial power generation above the scale, but will be counted in the whole society’s power generation. As we all know, our data are usually released in the middle of the next month. So many small-scale power generation scattered around the country will be counted annually, and the power generation of the whole society will also be released in the annual statistical bulletin. Generally speaking, the industrial power generation above designated size accounts for about 95% of the total social power generation, which has fluctuated a little recently. The power generation below designated size is increasing, while the power generation above designated size is decreasing, but the decrease is not big, which is probably the ratio. Look, everybodymonthlyThe expression "industries above designated size" cannot be ignored in power generation. Statistical indicators are relatively rigorous, and everyone should also pay attention to the meaning and scope of statistical indicators when using them, so as to facilitate the more accurate use of data. Thank you.
Southern Metropolis Daily reporter：
What is the employment situation in 2023? Did you complete the target task? The number of college graduates in 2024 is expected to reach a new high. What will be the employment trend? Thank you.
Kang Yi：
Thank you for your question. Employment is also a matter of great concern to everyone, because it is the biggest livelihood. The CPC Central Committee and the State Council have always attached great importance to the employment issue, emphasizing the promotion of stable employment to a strategic level. All localities and departments insist on giving priority to employment and optimizing and adjusting policies and measures to stabilize employment. In the past year, we made every effort to stabilize the overall employment situation and the overall employment situation improved. There are several characteristics.
First, investigate the decline of unemployment rate and the continuous increase of new jobs. On a quarterly basis, the national urban survey unemployment rate is 5.4%, 5.2%, 5.2% and 5.0% respectively, and the trend of gradual improvement in employment is obvious. From January to November, the number of new jobs in cities and towns was 11.8 million, an increase of 350,000 over the same period of last year.
Second, key groups and difficult groups have strong employment security. A series of job stability support and job expansion incentives came into effect, and the classified assistance for groups with employment difficulties was effective, and the employment of migrant workers, young people, people with employment difficulties and other groups was effectively guaranteed. In 2023, the total number of migrant workers reached 297.53 million, an increase of 1.91 million over the previous year. The average unemployment rate of migrant agricultural registered population in cities and towns was 4.9%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points over the previous year. From January to November, the number of unemployed people in cities and towns was 4.75 million, and the number of people with employment difficulties was 1.56 million.
Third, the employment scale of people out of poverty has increased steadily. All localities and departments give full play to the mechanisms of labor cooperation, counterpart support and fixed-point assistance between the east and the west, and carry out in-depth special assistance for poverty alleviation and relocation in key counties and ex situ, so that the employment of poverty-stricken people will grow steadily. By the end of November 2023, the number of migrant workers will be 32.94 million, exceeding the target of 30 million.
In this year’s employment situation, the overall judgment is that the pressure still exists, and the structural contradictions in employment of some groups and some industries will still be more prominent. However, with the recovery of economy, the acceleration of industrial transformation and upgrading, and the accumulation of positive factors to stabilize employment, China’s employment situation is expected to remain stable. There are several reasons:
First, the expansion of economic scale has brought about an increase in employment. Economic growth is the basis for stabilizing and expanding employment. In recent years, the continuous expansion of China’s economic growth is the key to stimulating employment growth. In 2024, the increment of China’s economic creation is expected to be greater than last year, which will provide strong support for expanding employment. Second, the number of people leaving the labor market in 2024 will be larger than the number of people newly entering the labor market, which also provides more employment space for people looking for jobs. The third is to upgrade the industrial structure and expand the employment capacity. Compared with other industries, the service industry with higher labor intensity has obvious advantages in absorbing employment. Since last year, the service industry has recovered well, and its proportion in GDP is also increasing. The proportion of service industry in GDP has exceeded the level before the epidemic, and the employment-driven role of catering, transportation, wholesale and retail industries is more obvious. Looking forward to this year, service consumption will be more active, and the growth of service industry will continue to be one of the main forces driving employment absorption. At the same time, new industries, new formats and new business models are developing vigorously, generating many brand-new job demands, which is also conducive to expanding employment space and improving employment quality. Fourth, the effect of stabilizing employment policy continues to exert significant effects. The Central Economic Work Conference has also made arrangements for this, especially pointing out that more policies are needed to stabilize expectations, growth and employment. All localities and departments will give more prominence to employment priority orientation, increase employment assistance for key groups, and the release of policy dividends is expected to continue to provide a strong guarantee for employment stability. Thank you.
