research team
Dean/Chief Analyst of Zhou Lijun Easy Car Research Institute
Industry analyst of Gaoying Easy Car Research Institute
Industry analyst of Shibuya Easy Car Research Institute
Single car market: a segmented car market composed of unmarried car buyers.
In recent years, the single car market in China has changed a lot: more and more young people buy cars from the marriage stage after working for a few years to the single stage when they just started working, and this trend is constantly expanding the user scale of the single car market; The internal structure of the single car market is accelerating the middle-aged and highly educated, which is constantly improving the gold content of the single car market …
At present, many car companies have launched personalized brands, and this series of measures will continue to enhance the research value of the single car market, which is more preferred to personalized brands. However, the construction thinking of personalized brands of most car companies is not based on the segmentation of users such as singles, and this situation will continue to strengthen the research urgency of single car market;
The 2024 edition of China Passenger Car Market by Easy Car Research Institute is mainly based on online research, with a total sample size of more than 60,000 in 2023. Taking Easy Car Big Data and offline research data of Easy Car Research Institute as reference, the sample size of offline research in 2023 exceeds 10,000.
In 2023, the terminal sales volume of single car market in China rose to 4.66 million, accumulating the strength to challenge the dominant position of family car market, making it a new force in the global car market.
In recent ten years, the increasingly popular reasons in China, such as late marriage and late childbearing, rising housing prices, expanding college graduates, increasingly serious overtime work, and rising wedding bride price, have greatly expanded the number of single people and indirectly boosted the single car market. In 2014, the sales contribution of the single car market was less than 2 million, and then it continued to grow. In 2017, it exceeded 3 million, and it remained relatively flat for the next three years. In 2021, it suddenly rose to 3.8 million, exceeded 4 million in 2022, and rose to 4.66 million in 2023, an increase of 11.63%, and the market share rose to 21.56%.
Over the past decade or so, because the China auto market was absolutely dominated by the family auto market, the single auto market was "covered up" as a whole and did not fully show its charm and strength. In ten years, China’s single car market is approaching the center of the stage step by step from the marginal car market. In 2023, the scale of 4.66 million vehicles will force Germany to approach Japan, making it a new force in the global car market.
Theoretically, China’s single car market has the strength to cultivate brand names and explosive products. At present, all it needs is a "Prince Charming", which can completely ignite this pile of firewood.
Women are the key force to boost the growth of the single car market.In 2023, it will contribute 42.95% to accelerate the mobility and electrification of the single car market.Set the stage for purchasing millet SU7, etc.
Although the single car market is still dominated by men, women are the main growth drivers. In 2021-2023, the sales contribution increased from 35% to 42.95%, which is closely related to the accelerated influx of single men into the used car market in recent years and the fact that single women still have a soft spot for new cars.
Because the female car scene is more focused on transportation, the feminization of the single car market will promote the transportation of the single car market. From 2021 to 2023, the demand for transportation in the single car market rose sharply from 33.94% to 45.83%, becoming the first demand for car purchase in the single car market;
Because electric vehicles are more suitable for transportation, the mobility of single car market will boost the electrification of single car market. From 2021 to 2023, the proportion of new energy in single car market will greatly increase from 7.01% to 38.45%, among which pure electric products will greatly increase from 5.17% to 27.31%. According to the scale of 4.66 million vehicles in 2023, the single car market contributed 1.79 million vehicles to new energy and 1.27 million vehicles to pure electricity;
In 2023, a large number of electric vehicle brands, such as Krypton, Weilai, Tucki, Zhiji and Aouita, sold only 1.2 million vehicles in China, or even less than 100,000 vehicles, which means that the single car market is of great value to the above brands and Xiaomi SU7, which was officially listed on March 28th, 2024. According to this reasoning, the rapid rise of Tesla in recent years is closely related to the single car market.
Middle-aged and middle-aged promote the high-end and large-scale single car market, and put it into Xiaomi.Personalized carts with more than 200,000 yuan have laid the groundwork.
Although the main body of the single car market is still youth and working class, the proportion of middle-aged and middle-aged people is increasing. From 2021 to 2023, the proportion of middle-aged people in the single car market rose from 25.04% to 26.89%, and the proportion of middle-aged people rose from 28.48% to 31.94%, which is closely related to the fact that high-income industries such as the Internet and finance have completely become the hardest hit areas in recent years.
Because middle-aged and middle-class users are more likely to buy high-end brands and carts, the middle-aged and middle-aged single car market will increase the proportion of single car market to buy high-end brands and medium-sized and above carts. From 2021 to 2023, the proportion of single users buying high-end brands rose from 15.34% to 25.04%, and the proportion of buying medium-sized and above cars rose from 24.06% to 36.63%;
In recent years, a lot of electric vehicle brands, such as Tesla, Weilai, Zhiji, Krypton, Aouita, Fox, Tucki, etc., all focus on medium-sized and above cars, and all choose to cut in from the high-end car market with a price of more than 200,000 yuan. Theoretically, they will all benefit from the single car market, but in fact, only Tesla will benefit. Can Lei Jun, who is full of personal charm, and Xiaomi, who has strong brand appeal, become new beneficiaries?
Higher education and urbanization help the single car market to continuously stimulate personalized consumption, and accumulate strength for the emergence of personalized consumption wave in China car market.
Since 2020, the number of college graduates in China has accounted for more than half of those born in the same age. In addition, most colleges and universities are in big cities and most college students are employed in big cities after graduation, so as to consolidate the high academic qualifications of China’s single car market and the leading position of big cities. From 2021 to 2023, the proportion of single car buyers with college education or above rose from 63.28% to 75.99%, and the proportion of first-line, new-line and second-line cities rose from 66.68% to 72.76%;
Because users who have received higher education and live in big cities are more popular in marrying late and having children late, and prefer personalized products such as sports, fashion and technology, the high education and urbanization of single car market will continuously stimulate the personalized consumption of single car market. In 2023, compared with the broader market, the proportion of single users purchasing personalized products such as streamlined sports, exquisite fashion, small and cute, and off-road toughness is higher;
In 2023, a large number of users of electric vehicle brands, such as Tucki, Weilai, Krypton, Zhiji, Aouita, Tucki, etc., are mainly users with higher education and working in big cities. Theoretically, the above-mentioned car companies in the initial stage should spare no effort to seize the ever-growing personalized wave, but in fact, many car companies have chosen diversified routes like mainstream car companies. Tucki, Weilai, Krypton, etc., not only have personalized P7 and ET5. The same question will also torture Xiaomi car, how to concentrate and follow the trend in the early stage of development. At present, only a few car companies, such as Ideal and Tesla, have well coordinated the short-term and long-term strategic deployment and realized the maximization of benefits.
In 2023, the single penetration rate of Deep Blue Automobile is as high as 43.41%, leading the list of mainstream brands, and small brands and personalized brands will be pushed to the crossroads again.
In 2023, the single penetration rate of dark blue cars with newborn calves was as high as 43.41%, ranking first among mainstream brands. From the dark blue SL03, a medium-sized car listed in July 2022, to the dark blue S7, a medium-sized SUV listed in June 2023, the styling design of sports style and personalized brand tonality are highlighted, which subtly caters to the demand of single people for car purchase. In 2023, the terminal sales of Deep Blue Auto in China quickly exceeded 100,000 vehicles. Although it is far from its sales target of 400,000 vehicles, it is outstanding compared with competing products. The hard-core dark blue G318, which was launched in the second quarter of 2024, will continue the sporty modeling and personalized tonality of the above two products, and I believe it will continue to consolidate the appeal of dark blue cars to singles. The problem of deep blue may appear after the sales volume exceeds 200,000 vehicles, that is, in the next year or two. At that time, Changan executives may re-weigh the positioning of deep blue, focusing on segmentation or layout mainstream. Judging from the past experience, I am not afraid of Chang’ an’s step by step, but I am afraid that Chang’ an will have new ideas;
Compared with deep blue, Nezha’s brand definition and product positioning ideas are more complicated. There are personalized products and mainstream household products, and they look around and wander back and forth between family and singles, mainstream and individuality, leading to increasingly blurred brand tonality and declining sense of existence;
MG’s single penetration rate was 39.23%, ranking second, but MG did not fully benefit from the single opportunity. From 2021 to 2023, MG’s terminal sales in China dropped sharply from 164,100 to 102,800. The reason is that there is a serious dislocation between the young or single users in the eyes of MG and the young or single users in the actual market. From MG 6 to MG 5 with a lower price, MG originally hoped to actively seize the young people in small towns through the sinking of the market. However, in reality, young people in small towns strive to study and work in big cities, rewrite their lives through their own abilities, strive for more wealth, and even become social elites. Naturally, MG 5 has become the new main force of late marriage and late childbirth, and it is obviously difficult to meet their upgrading needs. In 2023, MG actively adjusted, and successively launched MG 7, a high-level sports product, and MG Cyberster, a sports car. In the first quarter of 2024, MG 7 has become the new sales force of MG in China, and MG Cyberster is strongly boosting the brand power of MG. Next, it depends on the strategic determination of MG, how to quickly keep up with the "consumption upgrade" rhythm of China new youth who are mainly single, and how to make MG their first choice brand!
The single penetration rate of Lectra is 38.02%, ranking third. Before 2021, 01, 02, 03, 05, 06, a pile of compact products with personality and sports, laid the foundation for Lexus to compete in the single car market. If Lexus can launch electric vehicles in time, it may lead the new trend of the main body of the single car market infiltrating from men to women. The medium and large SUV 09, which went on the market in 2021, helped the Lexus to be further high-end, but pushed the Lexus from the personalized track to the mainstream track. In 2023, the listing and rapid increase of Linke 08, which takes into account both personality and family, is like establishing a "buffer zone" between 03 and 09 to avoid excessive division of brand tonality. In 2024, if 07, a sports energy-saving car, can be loaded quickly, it will consolidate the sports gene of Lectra. In the future, if hard-core products and sports cars can be strengthened, it is possible to build a new model with the color of Lectra from entry-level sports to high-end sports, and actively cater to the rhythm of continuous upgrading of single users;
Many mainstream high-end brands, such as Porsche, Audi, BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Lexus, rank among the TOP20； in the single car market penetration rate; Tesla, smart, Euler, Baojun, Extreme Krypton, Tucki and many other electric vehicle brands rank among the TOP20；; The three hard-core brands of tanks, Beijing and Land Rover rank among the TOP20；; Honda and Geely, which are mainly young, are also ranked in the TOP20；;
At present, most of the automobile brands with the TOP20 single penetration rate do not have clear top-level strategies and specific strategies to compete for the single automobile market. Even though many brands have specific rejuvenation strategies, their strategic focus is on young people from married families. In 2023, the single car market achieved a sales volume of 4.66 million vehicles. If it continues to improve in the future, theoretically, China single car market is fully capable of cultivating several explosive brands.
In 2023, the single penetration rate of Lectra 03 is as high as 58.78%, leading the mainstream car list, and the era of personalized car explosion is accelerating.
Since its release in 2018, LECK 03 has been persistently focusing on the concept of sports, helping LECK 03 to actively attract young users who are mainly single. In 2023, the penetration rate of single users of Linke 03 was as high as 58.78%, leading the ranking of mainstream models. In 2023, the Lexus 03 achieved a good result of 67,300 vehicles in China, and the price was firm, which was in sharp contrast with the large-scale price reduction promotion of traditional sports competing products such as Civic and Angkor Sela. Due to Geely’s outstanding youthful tonality and emphasis on sports design elements, except for Lingke 03, Binyue, Binrui and Lingke 06 have all advanced to the single penetration rate of TOP20；;
Leading 03, Civic, Mazda 3, Shadow Leopard, Golf, Volkswagen CC and other fuel sports cars rank among the TOP20； in single penetration rate; Model 3, Seals, Tucki P7, BMW i3 and other sports electric vehicles rank among the TOP20；; Entry-level high-end models such as BMW X1, Mercedes-Benz A-Class, Audi Q3 and Audi A3 are also among the TOP20. Fuel sports cars, sports electric vehicles and entry-level high-end models constitute the main body of the single penetration rate TOP20.
Judging from the market share,In 2023, Volkswagen and BYD are the biggest beneficiary brands in the single car market, and Model Y is the biggest beneficiary model.
By brand, in 2023, Volkswagen and BYD were the biggest beneficiaries of the single car market, with their market share of 9.27% and 9.14% respectively. In the single car market of 4.66 million vehicles in 2023, they all got terminal sales of over 400,000 vehicles, and their specific models such as Yuan PLUS, Qin PLUS, Song PLUS, Dolphin, Seagull, LaVida and Sagitar were all ranked.
From 2008 to 2012, the compact car strategy helped Volkswagen to quickly exceed 2 million vehicles in China. However, at present, the strategic planning and product strategy focusing on young family users and focusing on moderation, space and economy led to the compact car quickly becoming a heavy burden for the public, pushing the public to the difficult moment of "defending 2 million vehicles". Because the adjustment of the public in China is seriously out of touch with the new rhythm of young users infiltrating from family to singles, it provides an opportunity for BYD, which is more fashionable and more prominent in personality. In 2023, BYD’s single market share will quickly approach the public, and in 2024, it will be more likely to overtake;
The market share of Honda and Toyota in the single car market is 6.52% and 5.88% respectively, and the terminal sales volume is 290,600 and 262,300 respectively. Geely’s market share is 4.81%, taking 214,600 vehicles from the single car market; High-end brands such as BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Tesla and Audi have benefited a lot;
By vehicle type, in 2023, Model Y was the biggest beneficiary, with a market share of 2.98%. Among the 4.66 million plates in the single car market, it won the terminal sales of 138,800 vehicles, far ahead. The market share of Model 3 is 1.22%, which is also very high, and it has obtained terminal sales of 57,600 vehicles. Tesla’s user structure is highly consistent with the evolution of users in the single car market, which is convenient for benefiting from single opportunities. This discovery is conducive to benchmarking Tesla’s car companies and actively optimizing the benchmarking strategy.
Single users account for the pre-order users of Xiaomi Automobile.37.28%, which is an important force clearer than "rice flour"
According to official sources, orders for Xiaomi SU7 continued to soar, with 10,000 units ordered in 4 minutes, 20,000 units in 7 minutes, 50,000 units in 27 minutes and approaching 90,000 units in 24 hours. Easy Car Research Institute is very curious, who wants to buy Xiaomi car? The survey shows that the proportion of single users is as high as 37.28%, which is much higher than the market level of 21.56%. Although married is the main body, it is significantly lower than the market level;
At present, there are many discussions about who will buy Xiaomi car, and there is a big controversy. Among them, "rice flour" is the core of the controversy. Some people think that "rice flour" is the main force, and some people think that most "rice flour" can’t afford Xiaomi SU7. The single users we surveyed believe that there is some overlap with "rice noodle", but it is not limited to the concept of "rice noodle" and is much clearer than "rice noodle";
If the viewpoint that single users have made significant contributions to Xiaomi Automobile can stand scrutiny in the future, and the booming single automobile market is like the new golden track of China automobile market, Xiaomi Automobile will get a clearer new growth channel than "rice noodles".
The pre-order force of Xiaomi Automobile is located in the "hinterland" of China single car market. After "rice noodles", it is conducive to Xiaomi Automobile to cultivate new growth space.
It is no accident that the proportion of single pre-purchase of Xiaomi SU7 reaches 37.28%. The proportion of women, middle-aged, middle-aged, highly educated and big city pre-purchase users is as high as 40.71%, 55.15%, 74.29%, 92.49% and 71.74% respectively, which is in line with the evolution of feminization, middle-aged, middle-aged, highly educated and big city in China. Among them, many indicators of Xiaomi SU7 are significantly ahead of the single market, similar to Xiaomi SU7 being in the "hinterland" of China single car market. At this time, as long as Lei Jun shakes his arm, it is very likely to "lift the car";
At the press conference, when talking about users of Xiaomi SU7, Lei Jun thought it was an upgraded user of model 3, Audi A4L, mercedes benz c Class and BMW 3 Series. If you ask who are the users of model 3, Audi A4L, mercedes benz c Class and BMW 3 Series, it is not clear how Lei Jun will answer. According to the research of Easy Car Research Institute, the proportion of singles in the above-mentioned models regarded by Lei Jun as competing products is higher than that in the broader market, and they are all in the "hinterland" of the single car market. However, at present, these competing products do not pay attention to the single opportunity. Domestic models are still well-regulated household products, and the extreme lack of personalized products is equivalent to leaving a "seven inches" for Xiaomi Automobile.
Tesla and Porsche, which were strongly "run" by Lei Jun, andSeal, Model 3 and Tucki P7, which have direct competition with SU7, are all in the forefront of single penetration rate.
At the launch conference of Xiaomi SU7 on March 28th, 2024, Tesla and Porsche, which were highlighted by Lei Jun, and the specific model Model 3 attracted many single users. In 2023, the single penetration rates of Tesla and Porsche were 32.04% and 36.22%, respectively, ranking in the forefront of single penetration rates. The single penetration rate of Model 3 was 38.42%, which also ranked in the forefront of single penetration rates of models. In addition, brands such as Krypton and Tucki, which have direct competition with Xiaomi, and BYD Seals, Tucki P7 and BMW i3, which have direct competition with Xiaomi SU7, are also among the top single penetration rates. If Xiaomi can actively attract single users in the future, it will not only help to open up new growth space, but also effectively suppress the core competing products, and vice versa;
In response to the launch of Xiaomi SU7, Tesla CEO Musk sent a "congratulatory message" in advance: the correct way to score any technology is not to compare with competitors (because it is too easy), but to compare with physical limits;
At present, both Xiaomi and Tesla are enterprises that single users in China like. In the future, no matter the configuration of Xiaomi and Tesla, or the physical limit, we need to return to the user’s origin, which is more pleasing to users than anyone else.
In 2025, the domestic Model Q may become the new favorite of Tesla to attract single users, helping Tesla to actively counter Xiaomi cars.
In the field of mobile phones, as of the beginning of 2024, Apple is still the insurmountable peak of Xiaomi. After Xiaomi enters the automotive field, Tesla will become another peak of Xiaomi Automobile. For Xiaomi SU7′ s price of 215,900-299,900 yuan, for example, Tesla has also reduced it by 20,000-30,000 yuan, even from 210,000 yuan, Xiaomi SU7 will be embarrassed in an instant. In theory, Tesla has the ability to reduce prices, and the key depends on whether it is necessary, which mainly depends on the impact of SU7;
In addition to tit-for-tat price reduction promotion, Tesla also has a successor, namely the domestic compact crossover Model Q in 2025. Although the level and shape of Model Q are quite different from that of Xiaomi SU7, the users are likely to be very similar, that is, female-dominated family users and single users who are mainly young people. In 2023, Tesla’s female and single users accounted for a high proportion. I believe that the domestic Model Q in 2025 can effectively cater to the preferences of Tesla users. In the case of user convergence, if the price of Model Q drops to 150,000-200,000 yuan, plus the strong brand power of Tesla and the lack of effective measures of Xiaomi Automobile, a large number of single users are very likely to defect, and Xiaomi Automobile will suddenly suffer heavy losses.
From 2024 to 2030, the single car market is expected to be one of the best in the world, boosting the personalized consumption wave in China car market and becoming a new "Eden" for cultivating brands with high volume and explosive models.
In the past, the serious imbalance of higher and vocational education, the frequent high-intensity work 996, the high housing prices referred to by thousands of people, and the lingering high tuition classes directly or indirectly promoted the phenomenon of singles in China society. In the future, if the above hidden dangers cannot be effectively improved, the phenomenon of singles in China society will only intensify, and the proportion of singles in China automobile market will only rise. From 2024 to 2030, it is conservatively estimated that the market share of China’s single car market is expected to exceed 35%, which is one of the best in the world, boosting the personalized wave of China’s car market and becoming a new "Eden" for cultivating brand names and explosive models;
The "explosive position" of Xiaomi SU7 order is indispensable to single users, and the main force of Xiaomi pre-order is in the "hinterland" of China single society and single automobile market. For example, the second and third follow-up products of Xiaomi Automobile continue to highlight personalized styles such as streamlined sports. Xiaomi Automobile should raise the capture of "single opportunities" to a strategic height so as not to be preempted by competing products such as Tesla. In the next decade or two, the single opportunity in China may not help Xiaomi to become the top five car companies in the world, but it can help Xiaomi to qualify for the knockout of the top five car companies in the world. At present, Xiaomi Automobile’s positioning as a "car driver" is obviously more mainstream, which reflects Xiaomi Automobile’s long-term strategic appeal. In the short term, it is suggested that Xiaomi Automobile should actively highlight the individualized tonality, deeply cut into the strategic weakness of core competing products such as Audi, Mercedes-Benz and BMW, and firmly establish the strategic commanding heights;
In the past three years, BYD, Geely, Great Wall, Chery and many other mainstream car companies have not only released a new round of multi-brand strategy, but also launched many personalized electric vehicles such as Tucki P7, Seal EV, Extreme Krypton 001, Extreme Krypton 007, Tengshi N7, Weilai ET5, Geely E8, Xiaomi SU7 and so on. If the relevant car companies can actively lay out a more personalized single car market, it will theoretically help them optimize a new round of multi-brand strategy and tap the market potential of personalized electric vehicles; Specific new energy and personalized brands such as Deep Blue, Zhiji, Extreme Krypton and Tucki are even more stupid.
Looking around the world, only China has the fertile soil to intensively subdivide users. The annual sales volume of passenger cars in China is as high as 20 million, and the slightly mainstream car market has a scale of one million. As long as car companies don’t be greedy for perfection, don’t eat in a bowl and watch in a pot, serve a part of users in a down-to-earth manner, and do a good job in subdividing the car market, they all have the opportunity to become the mainstream car companies in China and the characteristic car companies in the global car market.
Disclaimer: The market is risky, so you should be careful when choosing! This article is for reference only, not as a basis for trading.
On April 18th, at present, the popularity of Xiaomi SU7 makes the delivery of Xiaomi also face challenges, but they are working hard to increase production capacity.
