标签： 新上海龙凤

　　In addition to municipalities directly under the central government, cities with separate plans and provincial capitals, there are also some ordinary prefecture-level cities with very strong economic strength.

　　According to the statistics of the First Financial Reporter, the top ten ordinary prefecture-level cities with GDP in 2020 are Suzhou, Wuxi, Foshan, Quanzhou, Nantong, Dongguan, Yantai, Changzhou, Xuzhou and Tangshan. Among them, a total of five cities broke through the trillion yuan mark, and Suzhou broke through the 2 trillion yuan mark. In the top ten, Jiangsu Province accounted for half.

　　Table: Top Ten Prefecture-level Cities in GDP

　　Five cities have exceeded one trillion, and Suzhou is far ahead.

　　In 2020, the number of cities with GDP exceeding one trillion reached 23, an increase of 6 over the previous year. Among them, there are five ordinary prefecture-level cities that exceed the trillion yuan mark, an increase of two over the previous year, and the new entrants are Quanzhou and Nantong.

　　Among them, Suzhou, the "leader", is far ahead in prefecture-level cities, and its GDP is 1.6 times that of Wuxi, the second place. It is known as the most cattle prefecture-level city, and many indicators can be described as "invincible" in prefecture-level cities. According to the data of Suzhou Municipal Bureau of Statistics, the GDP in 2020 will reach 2,017.05 billion yuan, an increase of 3.4% over the previous year at comparable prices. This is also the sixth city in China whose GDP has exceeded 2 trillion yuan, and the only ordinary prefecture-level city that has exceeded 2 trillion yuan.

　　It is worth noting that in 2020, the contribution rate of Suzhou’s scientific and technological progress reached 66.5%, and the number of high-tech enterprises declared, recognized, net increased and effective reached a record high. At the end of the year, there were 9,772 effective high-tech enterprises, ranking fifth in the country and leading the new first-tier cities. At the same time, the city’s general public budget revenue reached 230.3 billion yuan, an increase of 3.7% over the previous year, ranking fourth among large and medium-sized cities in China for the first time.

　　Ding Changfa, an associate professor in the Department of Economics of Xiamen University, analyzed the first financial report. Suzhou is backed by Shanghai, and the spillover effect of Shanghai is particularly obvious. Strong scientific and educational resources and modern service industries have promoted the transformation and upgrading of Suzhou, Wuxi and other southern and central Jiangsu regions.

　　On the other hand, several county-level cities under the jurisdiction of Suzhou, such as Kunshan, Zhangjiagang and Changshu, have long been among the top 100 counties in China. Among them, Kunshan has been ranked first in the ranking of the top 100 counties and cities in China for more than ten years, and is known as "the strongest county in China". In 2020, the city’s GDP will be 427.68 billion yuan, and the current price growth rate will be 5.7%; The total industrial output value has historically reached a new level of one trillion yuan; The total retail sales of social consumer goods was 139.81 billion yuan; The actual utilization of foreign capital was US$ 1.05 billion, and the growth rate of 40.3% reached a new high in the past five years.

　　After Suzhou, Wuxi, also from southern Jiangsu, ranked second, and was in the echelon of 1.2 trillion yuan with cities with separate plans and provincial capitals such as Ningbo, Qingdao, Changsha and Zhengzhou. It is worth noting that in 2019, Wuxi’s per capita GDP ranked first among ordinary prefecture-level cities.

　　Foshan ranks third among ordinary prefecture-level cities, and ranks third after Shenzhen and Guangzhou, the first economic province. Foshan is a big industrial city in China, and its industrial output value ranks among the best in the country, with outstanding industrial economic strength in equipment manufacturing, household appliances, ceramic building materials and metal products.

　　Quanzhou and Nantong are the new cities that entered the trillion-dollar mark this year. The data shows that in 2020, Quanzhou’s GDP was 1,015.866 billion yuan, an increase of 2.9%. In the closing year of the Thirteenth Five-Year Plan, Quanzhou’s total economic output exceeded 1 trillion yuan for the first time, ranking first in Fujian for 22 consecutive years.

　　As an ordinary prefecture-level city, Quanzhou can overwhelm Fuzhou, the provincial capital, and Xiamen, a sub-provincial city and a city with separate plans, and become the first city with a GDP of one trillion yuan in Fujian, relying on a solid real economy and private economy. Ding Changfa said that a major feature of Quanzhou’s economic development is that the county economy is very developed, and the county economy has formed a very complete industrial chain. Jinjiang, Shishi, Nan’ an, Anxi and other places under its jurisdiction have outstanding flagship industries.

　　According to the data released by Nantong Municipal Bureau of Statistics, according to preliminary accounting, the city’s GDP for the whole year was 1,003.631 billion yuan, an increase of 4.7% at comparable prices, and the growth rate was 2.4 and 1.0 percentage points higher than that of the whole country and the whole province respectively. The GDP has exceeded one trillion yuan, which indicates that Nantong’s comprehensive strength and production capacity have reached a new level.

　　It is worth noting that in recent years, the net outflow of Nantong population has shown a decreasing trend year by year, which is formed by the combined effect of the decrease of the out-of-town population and the increase of the foreign population year by year. In 2020, the resident population will historically exceed the registered population.

　　Compared with Quanzhou and Nantong, Dongguan, which was expected to exceed one trillion yuan in 2020, was temporarily stranded due to various factors. In 2020, the GDP of Dongguan is 965.019 billion yuan, ranking sixth among ordinary prefecture-level cities.

　　Hu Gang, president of South China Urban Research Association and a professor at Jinan University, said that Dongguan has the highest degree of economic extroversion, and will be greatly impacted by the export-oriented economy in 2020. Affected by the epidemic, a large number of migrant workers found it difficult to return to their posts in the first quarter of 2020, and many orders could not be completed; After April, the export was blocked again. However, with the rebound of orders, according to the current situation, Dongguan’s GDP will stand at the trillion-dollar mark in 2021.

　　Jiangsu, the top ten cities, accounts for five.

　　Judging from the regional distribution of the top ten cities, all of them come from the eastern coastal areas, including three in the northern region, namely Yantai, Xuzhou and Tangshan; There are seven in the southern region.

　　In terms of provinces, Jiangsu, the second largest economic province, has the largest number, and there are five in the top ten, namely Suzhou, Wuxi, Nantong, Changzhou and Xuzhou. These five cities have become attached to the subway at present.

　　Besides Jiangsu, the other five cities are from Guangdong, Fujian, Shandong and Hebei. Among them, two cities in Guangdong are Foshan and Dongguan, ranking third and fourth in Guangdong. Quanzhou ranks first in Fujian for a long time, Yantai ranks third in Shandong, and Tangshan has been pushing Shijiazhuang, the provincial capital, to rank first in Hebei.

　　Judging from the development paths of these 10 cities in recent years, there are great differences. Among them, several prefecture-level cities located in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta have gained more spillover from first-tier cities and second-tier leading cities, and in recent years, the transformation and upgrading have shown positive results, such as Suzhou, Dongguan, Wuxi, Nantong, Foshan, Changzhou and other cities.

　　For example, Shenzhen, with a local area of less than 2,000 square kilometers, has become increasingly saturated with land development space, so many industries in Shenzhen have spilled over to the surrounding areas, and Dongguan has benefited the most from its proximity to the moon. At present, an industrial complementary cooperation system of "you have me and I have you" has been formed between Dongguan and Shenzhen.

　　Nantong, from the central Jiangsu area and the north bank of the Yangtze River estuary, adheres to the general idea of "all-round integration into southern Jiangsu, all-round docking with Shanghai, and all-round promotion of high-quality development" to build a strong fulcrum city in the core triangle of the Yangtze River Delta integration. According to local media reports, Ji Jianlin, a professor at the Party School of Nantong Municipal Committee, said that the deep docking with Shanghai is an important driving force and source for Nantong’s GDP to exceed one trillion yuan.

　　Niu Fengrui, a researcher at the Center for Urban Development and Environment Research of China Academy of Social Sciences, analyzed the First Financial Report that the spillovers of energy and radiation from first-tier cities and top-tier cities are closely related, and the closer they are to high-energy cities, the stronger they will receive radiation, so that the high-tech spillovers of core cities will first choose neighboring cities.

　　The elements of modern service industry in first-tier cities and second-tier leading cities have accelerated the transformation and upgrading of surrounding manufacturing cities. However, for some ordinary prefecture-level cities such as Quanzhou and Yantai, which are far away from the three economic circles and the first-tier cities, there are still more ways to go for their transformation and upgrading and structural adjustment.

　　Take Quanzhou, the first economic city in Fujian, as an example. At present, the leading industries in Quanzhou are still light industries such as clothing, shoes and hats. Compared with similar cities, there are fewer high-tech enterprises in Quanzhou, the modern service industry is weak, and there is a bottleneck of insufficient talents in transformation and upgrading. For example, the data shows that in 2020, the number of high-tech enterprises in Quanzhou reached 1037, a net increase of 352 over 2019. However, compared with Dongguan, Suzhou, Wuxi, Foshan and other ordinary prefecture-level cities with large economic aggregates, there is a huge gap.

　　The situation in Yantai is similar. Last year, the total number of high-tech enterprises in Yantai reached 1,120, an increase of 36% over the previous year, ranking third in the province in terms of new number and total number respectively. However, compared with similar cities in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, the gap is far away.

　　For such cities, it may be necessary to strengthen their internal strength, improve the business environment, accelerate the construction of central cities, accelerate the development of modern service industries, and accelerate the upgrading and development of industries on the basis of existing manufacturing industries.

　　Niu Fengrui said that these cities need to have their own special orientation in the industrial structure and direction. They don’t have to follow the fashion and trends, but they should choose industrial sectors with comparative advantages according to their own resource endowments, regional characteristics and original industrial base, and focus on development. "In the geographical division of labor, we must have our own positioning, depending on whether there is a comparative advantage and whether there is a relatively lower production cost, which is the key to future development."

　　According to previous years’ practice, analyzing the current economic situation, Politburo meeting of the Chinese Communist Party, which will deploy economic work in the second half of the year, is expected to be held in the near future, and what attitude it will make on the regulation of the property market, or set the tone for the market trend in the second half of the year.

　　Some insiders believe that the differentiation characteristics of the domestic real estate market are increasingly obvious, and policy control tends to be strengthened in some areas. It is expected that the policy will adhere to one city and one policy in the third quarter, and some areas may continue to tighten, which will have an inhibitory effect on market transactions in some overpriced cities. Housing enterprises need to flexibly formulate strategies for destocking.

　　Five of the seven meetings involved real estate.

　　Since July 2017, Politburo meeting of the Chinese Communist Party, with economy as the main topic, has been held seven times. Except for the two meetings on October 31, 2018 and December 13, 2018, the other five meetings made important statements on the real estate market.

　　For example, on July 31, 2018, Politburo meeting of the Chinese Communist Party made up his mind to solve the real estate market problem, adhere to the policy of the city, promote the balance between supply and demand, reasonably guide expectations, rectify the market order, and resolutely curb the rise in housing prices. Accelerate the establishment of a long-term mechanism to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.

　　The latest one was April 19th, 2019, when Politburo meeting of the Chinese Communist Party demanded that the house be used for living, not for speculation, and that a long-term regulation mechanism of "one city, one policy, one policy according to the city and the main responsibility of the city government" should be implemented.

　　This is also the second half of 2018, after failing to mention the real estate content twice in a row, Politburo meeting of the Chinese Communist Party revisited the slogan of "housing and not speculating". In the industry’s view, this move is also expected.

　　In the first quarter of 2019, due to the expectation of policy relaxation, the actual easing of funds and the actual downward trend of credit interest rates, the real estate market showed a warming state, and the property market "Xiaoyangchun" started to increase, and the wave of land grabbing in hot cities resumed.

　　In this context, Politburo meeting of the Chinese Communist Party once again mentioned that housing is not speculation, which shows that he is paying close attention to the warming of hot cities’ markets, breaking the previous expectation that hot cities will relax restrictions on purchases and loans, and also to prevent risks such as rising prices in the real estate market.

　　After Politburo meeting of the Chinese Communist Party set the tone of property market regulation in April this year, the regulation policies of subsequent ministries and local governments followed.

　　Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, said that in the first half of 2019, the national real estate regulation and control policies reached 251 times, up 31% year-on-year compared with 192 times in the first half of 2018.

　　"Real estate regulation and control policies have shown a significant tightening trend since mid-April. In the past two months, real estate has been regulated for nearly 100 times, and the density is at the highest stage in history. " Zhang Dawei said.

　　On the day of Politburo meeting of the Chinese Communist Party (April 19th), according to the requirements of monthly analysis, quarterly evaluation and annual assessment determined by the scheme of long-term real estate mechanism, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development gave early warning tips to six cities with large fluctuations in house prices and land prices in the first quarter of 2019.

　　One month later, on May 18th, in order to further implement the main responsibility of the real estate market in regulating cities, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development gave early warning tips to Foshan, Suzhou, Dalian and Nanning, four cities where the price index of newly-built commercial housing and second-hand housing has increased greatly in recent three months.

　　The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development requires all localities to resolutely implement the decision-making arrangements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, always adhere to the positioning that houses are used for living, not for speculation, further strengthen market monitoring and analysis, solve problems in market operation in time, and earnestly implement the requirements of stabilizing land prices, housing prices and expectations to ensure the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.

　　Suzhou, which was warned by the "yellow card" of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, upgraded its real estate control measures twice in a row on May 11th and July 24th this year.

　　Why should Suzhou continuously upgrade its regulation? The Supplementary Opinions on Further Promoting the Sustainable and Healthy Development of the City’s Real Estate Market issued by Suzhou Municipal People’s Government emphasizes that the regulation and upgrading of the property market is based on "persistence ’ A house is for living, not for speculation ’ Positioning, the implementation of stable land prices, stable housing prices, stable expectations, curb speculative real estate speculation, and reasonably guide market expectations.

　　The one-day tour of Kaifeng property market policy sends a signal to the outside world that regulation will not be relaxed easily. On July 19th, Kaifeng Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau issued a document to adjust the property market sales restriction policy, which was considered as a loose regulation implemented by third-and fourth-tier cities due to the downturn of the property market. However, one day later, Kaifeng Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau itself announced the cancellation of the document.

　　On July 20th, Kaifeng Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau said that due to its decision to "adjust the trading time limit of newly purchased commercial housing and cancel the filing restrictions", it did not conduct sufficient market research and demonstration, and lacked sufficient pre-judgment and evaluation of the possible market impact, so it revoked this decision and withdrew the relevant letter.

　　Suzhou’s upgrading regulation and one-day tour of Kaifeng’s loosening policy have different measures, but the logic behind them tends to be the same: the current property market regulation is easy to tighten but difficult to loosen.

　　Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, said that Suzhou’s policy overweight is similar to Kaifeng’s policy of loosening restrictions on sales, that is, housing and not speculating is the policy logic in the second half of this year, and there is no possibility of relaxation. Relevant market participants must fully realize the importance of stabilizing the market at present. The introduction of similar policies has also formed good conditions for the subsequent control of investment speculative demand and stable expectations.

　　In the second half of the year, housing enterprises will reduce prices and promote sales?

　　The fluctuation of the real estate market in China is closely related to the policy adjustment, and it also provides a basis for the next policy adjustment.

　　Guo Shiying, an analyst at Zhuge Housing Search Data Research Center, told CBN that if we want to predict the follow-up policy direction, we should first pay attention to the changes in the two major indicators of real estate prices and transaction volume. "Stabilizing land prices, stabilizing housing prices and stabilizing expectations" will still be the main tone of regulation.

　　According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to June, the sales area of commercial housing nationwide was 757.86 million square meters, down 1.8% year-on-year, and the decline rate was 0.2 percentage points higher than that in January to May. Among them, the residential sales area decreased by 1.0%. The sales volume of commercial housing was 7,069.8 billion yuan, up by 5.6%, and the growth rate dropped by 0.5 percentage point.

　　In 2018, the national sales area of commercial housing exceeded 1.7 billion square meters, a record high. Even though the sales area in the first half of 2019 decreased by 1.8% year-on-year, the total volume was still at a high level in recent years.

　　On July 15th, Mao Shengyong, director and spokesperson of the National Statistics Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said at the press conference of the State Council Office that the current real estate market is generally stable in terms of housing price, real estate investment, real estate sales, construction area and land transaction. From the next stage, on the one hand, urbanization is still advancing, and there is still a need for improvement, which is a support. On the other hand, the concept of "housing without speculation" is more and more deeply rooted in people’s hearts, emphasizing "policy based on the city" and emphasizing the main responsibility of the city government. These two factors are combined, and it is possible to stabilize land prices, house prices and expectations in the real estate market in the next stage.

　　Yan Yuejin said that the first half of this year is an important stage to actively implement the policy of "stabilizing housing prices and stabilizing expectations", and the phenomenon of high housing prices in some cities has also been well curbed. Of course, in the actual process, some supporting houses such as well-occupied school districts still have speculation, and some sales that seem to have reduced prices also have illegal charges. Similar situations require continued strengthening of house price control, especially in the third quarter of this year. The policy is further tightened. For related housing enterprises, they may take the initiative to reduce prices and promote sales in the third quarter.

　　He believes that the policy in the third quarter is mainly tight, which may also have an inhibitory effect on market transactions. Judging from this, the possibility of rising residential inventory will increase, and some housing enterprises also need to flexibly formulate strategies for destocking.

　　Although the overall sales decline has narrowed, which is close to the same period last year, the regional differences in the domestic real estate market have gradually increased. From the sales area of commercial housing, the local property market is uneven, with some doubling (Beijing) and some falling by more than 50% (Hainan).

　　According to the data provided by Zhuge’s housing search, from the perspective of the new housing market, cities at all levels have different performances, with the first line rebounding, the second line stabilizing and the third and fourth lines cooling down. In the first half of 2019, the total transaction volume of commercial housing in three first-tier cities in Beishang and Shenzhen was about 12.54 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 43.89%. The transaction area of second-tier representative cities was about 114.1 million square meters, up 0.71% year-on-year, and the overall transaction scale remained stable. The transaction area of the third-tier representative cities in the first half of the year was about 55.77 million square meters, down 16.07% year-on-year, and the year-on-year decline was the most significant among all cities.

　　In addition to the decline in transactions, the current decline in the real estate market in third-and fourth-tier cities is also reflected in the reduction of land transfer. For some third-and fourth-tier cities that rely heavily on land transfer, the pressure to develop the economy is increasing, and the impulse to adjust the property market regulation policy may become stronger.

　　Guo Shiying said that although the central government has always emphasized "one city, one policy, one policy for each city", the local dominance and the regulation direction of local cities have always been guided by the central goal. Under the guidance of the central goal, cities can fine-tune the current urban policies in order to stabilize the development of the real estate market. As for the types and degrees of policy adjustments, they need to be determined according to the development characteristics of current cities.

　　▲ Feng, the owner of the fake lottery shop. Compared with the real lottery (right), the fake lottery sold by Feng is obviously different. Our reporter Gan Xiayi photo

　　"I may have bought a fake lottery ticket … …” Not long ago, Mr. Wu, who lives in Chen Jiaqiao, Shapingba, came to the police station to report that he had never won a lottery in a lottery shop, so he suspected that the lottery was fake.

　　Is Mr. Wu "unlucky" or did he really encounter a fake lottery ticket?

　　I bought lottery tickets for a month and didn’t win any small prizes.

　　Mr. Wu works in Chen Jiaqiao. When he has a rest, he likes to play an online instant lottery called "Shi Shi Cai" with his friends in the lottery shop. The time lottery belongs to Keno lottery, approved by the Ministry of Finance, and issued by China Welfare Lottery Issuance Management Center in the area under the jurisdiction of Chongqing, which belongs to the regular welfare lottery.

　　Mr. Wu said that he had played "Time Lottery" in other places before. Although he didn’t win the grand prize, he often won small prizes. However, he spent a month in this lottery shop in Chen Jiaqiao, invested thousands of dollars and didn’t win any prizes, which made him suspicious.

　　On the 16th of this month, Mr. Wu reported the case to the Chen Jiaqiao police station. When he took out the lottery tickets bought in this lottery shop from his bag, the police soon found that these lottery tickets were very different from the regular lottery tickets sold in the market: generally speaking, the regular lottery tickets were colored, with the logo and pattern of the China Welfare Lottery on them, and a line of anti-counterfeiting codes with two-dimensional code patterns. The lottery ticket that Mr. Wu took out is no different from the cashier’s receipt in the supermarket. There is neither a sign of China Welfare Lottery nor an anti-counterfeiting code.

　　Hearing this explanation from the police, Mr. Wu shouted that he was fooled. At that time, he only looked at the lottery results on the TV screen and didn’t notice the difference of lottery tickets at all.

　　The fake lottery shop has been in business for three months.

　　According to the police, according to national laws and regulations, issuing lottery tickets without permission has constituted the crime of illegal business operation. Chen Jiaqiao police station immediately investigated the shop where Mr. Wu bought lottery tickets, and found that in addition to this lottery shop, another lottery shop on the street also illegally sold lottery tickets.

　　On the afternoon of 16th, the police seized two shops that illegally sold fake lottery tickets, seized four computers, four televisions and two bill printers for illegally selling lottery tickets, and brought the owners Feng Mou, cashiers Liu Mou, Wan Mou and dozens of people who bought lottery tickets on the spot back to the police station for investigation.

　　After inquiry, Feng confessed the criminal fact that he had opened a fake "time color" in Chenjiaqiao Town since November 2016 without the approval of the state.

　　The police said that there were no signs hanging outside the two fake lottery shops. However, the setting in the store is almost exactly the same as that in a regular lottery shop, so the customers who come here are not aware of the abnormality.

　　Whoever the boss wants to win the prize will win.

　　Feng confessed that he had seen such a fake lottery shop in other places before, and thought it was quite profitable, so he bought the system developed by the other party and opened two stores in Chenjiaqiao Town after he came back. The interface of the lottery ticket is almost the same as that of the China Welfare Lottery, and the lottery ticket is awarded every 10 minutes, but there is no sign of the China Welfare Lottery, and the lottery ticket is also printed on ordinary cashier receipt paper. Despite this, many people didn’t notice these details and came to his shop to buy lottery tickets.

　　Feng said that the lottery system is controlled by himself. Whoever wants to win the prize can win the prize, and whoever doesn’t want to win the prize doesn’t have a penny. In just a few months, Feng illegally sold lottery tickets for more than 300,000 yuan and made a profit of nearly 100,000 yuan.

　　The two female cashiers confessed that they were hired by Feng. Although they knew that this was illegal, they were not very clear about the "mystery" because they had never bought a lottery ticket. They usually collected money according to the boss’s requirements. According to them, dozens of people come to the store to buy lottery tickets every day, all of whom are local residents or migrant workers.

　　The police investigating the case said that the amount of fake lottery tickets sold by Feng ranged from 5 yuan to 100 yuan. They have sold thousands of fake lottery tickets in the past three months. At present, the criminal suspect Feng was released on bail pending trial on suspicion of illegal business operation, and the case is still being further processed.

　　The police reminded that when buying lottery tickets, you must keep your eyes open, go to the regular sales point of China Welfare Lottery, and pay attention to whether the lottery tickets have the words and anti-counterfeiting codes of China Welfare Lottery, so as not to be deceived. If you find the sales point of fake lottery tickets, please call 110 in time, and the police will crack down on such illegal and criminal acts. Our reporter Tan Yao